Mafambiro emotokari yemagetsi: 2023 richava gore rekudiridza mvura yemotokari dzinorema

Chirevo chechangobva kuitika chakavakirwa pakufanotaura kwefuturist Lars Thomsen anoratidza remangwana remotokari dzemagetsi nekuzivisa maitiro akakosha emusika.
Kugadzirwa kwemotokari dzemagetsi kune njodzi here?Kukwira kwemitengo yemagetsi, inflation uye kushayikwa kwezvinhu zvakasvibirira zvakakonzera kusava nechokwadi nezveramangwana remotokari dzemagetsi.Asi kana iwe ukatarisa kuvandudzwa kwemusika muEurope, US neChina, motokari dzemagetsi dziri kuwedzera pasi rose.
Zvinoenderana nedata reSMMT, yakazara UK kunyoreswa kwemota nyowani muna 2022 ichave 1.61m, idzo 267,203 imotokari dzemagetsi dzakachena (BEVs), inoverengera 16.6% yekutengesa kwemotokari nyowani, uye 101,414 imotokari dzeplug-in.hybrid.(PHEV) Inoverengera 6.3% yemotokari nyowani yekutengesa.
Nekuda kweizvozvo, mota dzemagetsi dzakachena dzave yechipiri inonyanya kufarirwa powertrain muUK.Kune anosvika mazana matanhatu nemakumi matanhatu ezviuru emotokari dzemagetsi ne445,000 plug-in hybrid mota dzemagetsi (PHEVs) muUK nhasi.
Chirevo cheJuice Technology chinobva pane zvakafanotaurwa nefuturist Lars Thomsen inosimbisa kuti chikamu chemotokari dzemagetsi chinoramba chichiwedzera, kwete mumotokari chete, asiwo mukutakura kwevanhu uye motokari dzinorema.Nzvimbo yekugumira iri kusvika apo mabhazi emagetsi, mavhani nemataxi anenge ave kudhura zvakanyanya kupfuura dhiziri kana mota dzinofambiswa nepeturu.Izvi zvichaita sarudzo yekushandisa motokari yemagetsi kwete chete mhepo inonzwika, asiwo ine hupfumi.
Nzvimbo yekugumira iri kusvika apo mabhazi emagetsi, mavhani nemataxi anenge ave kudhura zvakanyanya kupfuura dhiziri kana mota dzinofambiswa nepeturu.
Zvisinei, kuitira kuti utsungirire nenhamba iri kukura yemotokari dzemagetsi, uye kwete kunonoka kufambira mberi, iyo yekuchaja network inoda kuwedzerwa zvakanyanya.Zvinoenderana nekufungidzira kwaLars Thomsen, kudiwa munzvimbo dzese nhatu dzekuchaja zvivakwa (autobahns, nzvimbo dzekuenda nedzimba) kuri kukura zvakanyanya.
Kunyatso sarudza chigaro uye kusarudza chiteshi chekuchaja chega chega kwave kunetsa.Kana ikabudirira, zvinokwanisika kuwana mari kubva kune yeruzhinji yekuchaja zvivakwa kwete kuburikidza nekuisirwa pachayo, asi kuburikidza neaya masevhisi ane hukama, sekutengesa kwechikafu nezvinwiwa munzvimbo yekuchaja.
Tichitarisa kukurudzirwa kwemusika wepasi rose, zvinoratidzika kuti maitiro ekugadzirwa kwesimba rekugadzirisa haasati ambomira uye mari yezviwanikwa izvi zvinoramba zvichidonha.
Isu tiri kuita mitengo mumisika yemagetsi nekuti simba rimwechete (gasi rechisikigo) rinoita kuti magetsi asadhure zvakanyanya (pamwe nezvimwe zvinhu zvenguva pfupi).Zvisinei, mamiriro ezvinhu aripo haasi echigarire, sezvo ari pedyo nemamiriro ezvematongerwo enyika uye emari.Munguva yepakati kusvika kureba, magetsi achave akachipa, mamwe anowaniswazve achave aripo uye grid ichava yakangwara.
Magetsi anozove akachipa, simba rinowanikwazve richagadzirwa, uye network inova yakangwara
Chizvarwa chakaparadzirwa chinoda gidhi rakangwara kuti rigovere zvine hungwaru simba rinowanikwa.Sezvo mota dzemagetsi dzichigona kuchajwa chero nguva dzadzinenge dzisina basa, dzinoita basa rakakosha mukudzikamisa grid nekuchengeta mapeaks ekugadzira.Kune izvi, zvakadaro, dynamic load management chinhu chinodiwa kune ese matsva ekuchaja zviteshi anopinda mumusika.
Pane mimwe misiyano inocherechedzwa pakati penyika dzeEurope maererano nekuvandudzwa kwezvivakwa zvekuchaja.MuScandinavia, Netherlands neGermany, semuenzaniso, budiriro yezvivakwa yakatonyanya kufambira mberi.
Kubatsira kwezvivakwa zvekuchaja ndeyekuti kusikwa kwayo uye kuisirwa hakutore nguva yakawanda.Zviteshi zvekuchaja pamugwagwa zvinogona kurongwa uye kuvakwa mumavhiki kana mwedzi, nepo zviteshi zvekuchaja kumba kana kubasa zvichitora kana nguva shoma pane kuronga nekuiswa.
Saka kana tichitaura nezve “infrastructure” hatirevi nguva yaimboitwa kugadzira migwagwa mikuru nemabhiriji ezvicherwa zvemagetsi enyukireya.Saka kunyangwe nyika dzakasaririra dzinogona kubata nekukasira.
Munguva yepakati, zvivakwa zvekuchaja veruzhinji zvichave chero pazvinenge zvine musoro kune vanoshanda nevatengi.Mhando yekuchaja inodawo kuchinjirwa kune iyo nzvimbo: mushure mezvose, zvinobatsirei 11kW AC charger pachiteshi chepeturu kana vanhu vachingoda kumira kuti vanwe kofi kana kuruma kuti vadye pamberi perwendo rwavo?
Nekudaro, mahotera kana epaki yekuvaraidza majaja emota anopaka anotonyanya kunzwisisika kupfuura ekupedzisira-nekukurumidza asi anodhura anokurumidza majaja eDC: mapaki emota dzehotera, nzvimbo dzevaraidzo, zvinokwezva vashanyi, zvitoro zvikuru, nhandare dzendege nemapaki ebhizinesi.20 AC yekuchaja zviteshi zvemutengo weHPC imwe (High Power Charger).
Vashandisi vemotokari yemagetsi vanosimbisa kuti neavhareji zuva nezuva madaro e30-40 km (18-25 mamaira), hapana chikonzero chekushanyira nzvimbo dzekuchaja veruzhinji.Zvese zvaunofanirwa kuita kubaya mota yako munzvimbo yekuchaja mukati mezuva kubasa uye kazhinji kureba kumba husiku.Ose ari maviri anoshandisa alternating current (alternating current), iyo inononoka uye nokudaro inobatsira kuwedzera hupenyu hwebhatiri.
Motokari dzemagetsi dzinofanirwa kuoneka zvakazara.Ndosaka iwe uchida iyo chaiyo mhando yekuchaja chiteshi munzvimbo chaiyo.Zviteshi zvekuchaja zvinobva zvazadzisana kugadzira network yakabatanidzwa.
Chii chine chokwadi, zvisinei, ndechekuti AC kuchaja kumba kana kubasa inogara iri iyo yakachipa sarudzo kune vashandisi sezvo yakawanda uye yakawanda inosiyana yekuchaja mareti inopihwa kusvika 2025, ichideredza kubhadharisa kunotsigira grid.huwandu hwesimba rinowanikwazve rinowanikwa pane grid, nguva yemasikati kana yeusiku uye mutoro pane grid, kubhadharisa panguva iyoyo kunoderedza mari.
Kune zvikonzero zvehunyanzvi, zvehupfumi uye zvezvakatipoteredza zveizvi, uye semi-akazvimirira (akangwara) yekuchaja kuronga pakati pemotokari, kuchaja chiteshi vanoshanda uye grid vanoshanda vanogona kubatsira.
Nepo ingangoita gumi muzana yemotokari dzese dzinotengeswa pasi rose muna 2021 dzichange dziri mota dzemagetsi, chete 0.3% yemotokari dzinorema dzichatengeswa pasi rose.Parizvino, mota dzemagetsi dzinorema dzakangoiswa muhuwandu hwakawanda muChina nerutsigiro rwehurumende.Dzimwe nyika dzakazivisa hurongwa hwekuisa magetsi mota dzinorema, uye vagadziri vari kuwedzera zvigadzirwa zvavo.
Panyaya yekukura, tinotarisira kuti nhamba yemotokari dzinorema dzemagetsi mumugwagwa dzichawedzera kusvika 2030. Kana dzimwe nzira dzemagetsi kune diesel heavy duty motokari dzinosvika pakuparara, kureva kuti kana dziine mutengo wakaderera wevaridzi, sarudzo ichaenda kune imwe nzvimbo. magetsi.Pakazosvika 2026, dzinenge dzese kesi dzekushandisa uye mamiriro ebasa anozosvika zvishoma nezvishoma pane ino inflection point.Ndicho chikonzero, maererano nekufanotaura, kugamuchirwa kwemagetsi emagetsi muzvikamu izvi kuchave kwakanyanyisa kudarika zvatakaona mumotokari dzinotakura vanhu munguva yakapfuura.
IUS inharaunda kusvika parizvino yasara kumashure kweEurope mukugadzirwa kwemotokari dzemagetsi.Nekudaro, data razvino rinoratidza kuti kutengesa kwemotokari yemagetsi eUS kwakakura nekukurumidza mumakore achangopfuura.
Kuderera kwemitengo yemitengo uye mitengo yakakwira gasi, tisingarevi kuwanda kwezvinhu zvitsva uye zvinomanikidza senge mutsara wakazara wemavan uye marori ekutakura, zvakagadzira kukurumidza kutsva kwekutorwa kwemotokari yemagetsi muAmerica.Iyo yatove inonakidza EV musika wemugove kumavirira nekumabvazuva kumahombekombe ikozvino wave kuchinjika mukati menyika.
Munzvimbo dzakawanda, motokari dzemagetsi ndiyo sarudzo yakanakisisa, kwete chete nokuda kwezvikonzero zvezvakatipoteredza, asiwo nokuda kwezvikonzero zvehupfumi uye zvekushanda.Zvivakwa zvekuchaja mota dzemagetsi zviri kuwedzerawo nekukurumidza muUS, uye dambudziko nderekuenderana nekukura kuri kuda.
Parizvino, China iri mukudzikira zvishoma, asi mumakore mashanu anotevera ichatendeuka kubva kune inopinza mota kune mutengesi wemotokari kunze.Kudiwa kwemumba kunotarisirwa kupora uye kuratidza kukura kwakasimba kutanga kwa2023, nepo vagadziri veChinese vachiwana kuwedzera kwemusika muEurope, US, Asia, Oceania neIndia mumakore anotevera.
Pakazosvika 2027, China inogona kutora kusvika makumi maviri muzana emusika uye kuve mutambi ane mukurumbira mukuvandudza uye kufamba kutsva mukati menguva refu.Zvinogona kuwedzera kuomera maOEM echinyakare eEuropean neAmerica kukwikwidza nevakwikwidzi vavo: maererano nezvinhu zvakakosha zvakaita semabhatiri nemagetsi, hungwaru hwekugadzira uye kutyaira kuzvimiririra, China haisi kumberi chete asi, kunyanya kukosha, nekukurumidza.
Kunze kwekunge maOEMs echinyakare achigona kuwedzera zvakanyanya kuchinjika kwavo kugadzira, China ichakwanisa kutora chunk hombe yepai mukati menguva refu.